Electrolytic Hydrogen Production Cost Estimator

This page takes user-defined parameters and estimates cost of hydrogen production using a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulations are performed in the background using a FORTRAN program. There is a description of the form inputs and calculation below.

Enter Min, Mode, Max of Project CPX (IEA uses ~900.00):


Enter Min, Mode, Max of Project CRF (EPA uses ~0.10 for wind):


Enter Min, Mode, Max of Project PWR cost (LBNL says average US wind is ~33.00):


Enter Min, Mode, Max of Project ACF (New US wind is ~0.41 per LBNL):


Enter number of Monte Carlo trials (integer from 1000-1000000):


If desired, enter a label for your output file (up to 20 characters; no spaces):


Now click Write Values to File, then click Run Fortran:

Description of the Calculation

The input parameters for the simulation are (1) the all-in project capital cost in dollars per unit of electrolyzer system electrical input capacity ($/kWe) (2) the annual capital recovery factor for the project expressed as a decimal (3) the average price paid by the project for electricity in $/MWh and (4) the annual capacity factor at which that electricity is available to the project, expressed as a decimal. These four parameters are called "CPX", "CRF", "PWR", and "ACF" here, respectively. In addition to those variable parameters the simulation assumes that the electrolysis system requires 53 kWh of input electrical energy per kg of pure hydrogen produced and delivered to the project battery limits at 30 barg pressure (called "EFF" here), and that annual fixed operation and maintenance costs for the project are 4% of project capital expenditure (called "FOM" here). With those variables defined, the calculation of COH is based on the following equation:

COH = ( (CPX*(CRF+FOM))/(8760*ACF) + (PWR/1000) ) * EFF

For each of the four variable parameters, three values are entered. These are the minimum, mode, and maximum values of a triangular probability distribution for that parameter. The minimum is the lowest value for the parameter that you believe could occur, the maximum is the highest value for the parameter that you believe could occur, and the mode is the value for the parameter which you believe is most likely to occur. The min and max do not need to be symetrical about the mode. Note that the form is auto-filled with default values but you can change any of them to suit.

You can read more about Monte Carlo simulations here. You can read more about triangular probability distributions here. You can read more about the author of this simulation or give feedback using the contact form here.

DISCLAIMER:

This estimator was developed by Cambridge ETI Consulting LLC for educational use only. Cambridge ETI Consulting LLC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied regarding the accuracy of any information contained herein or suitability of that information for any purpose. Your use of the site is solely at your own risk.

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